Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 060850
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 AM MST Tue Aug 06 2024

Emilia is becoming more organized overnight.  The tropical storm has 
had a healthy burst of deep convection near the surface center with 
a growing central dense overcast.  Some fortuitous scatterometer 
data showed an area of 45-50 kt of wind along the southern portion 
of the circulation.  This combined with a TAFB Dvorak estimate of 
T3.5 is the basis for increasing the initial intensity to 55 kt for 
this advisory.  The wind radii have also been updated using the 
satellite surface wind data, extending the tropical-storm-force 
winds in the southern half of the storm.

The cyclone is moving at an uncertain 255/4 kt.  Emilia's track 
forecast is dependent on Fabio, the tropical storm to its east.  The 
two systems are forecast to rotate around one another as they both 
turn generally north-northwestward to northwestward and accelerate 
along southwestern side of a ridge centered over the United States 
during the next day or so.  As Emilia weakens later in the week, 
the shallower vortex should turn westward in the low-level flow.  
Only small changes have been made to the latest track forecast, and 
it lies on the southern side of the track guidance envelope.

Models continue to show Emilia as the dominant cyclone that should 
survive the interaction with Fabio.  Steady intensification is still 
forecast over the next 24 h, but the peak has been adjusted upward 
due to the recent strengthening trend.  Emilia is now expected to 
become a hurricane on Wednesday.  Later in the week, most models 
show Emilia and Fabio merging, though the timing is questionable.  
The official prediction shows Fabio being absorbed into Emilia's 
circulation by 48 h, similar to the most recent ECMWF model 
forecast.  The storm will gradually weaken into a remnant low by 
the end of the forecast period as it moves over cooling ocean waters 
and into a dry and stable environment.  Due to the uncertainty in 
the interaction with Tropical Storm Fabio, changes to the forecast 
could be necessary in later advisory packages.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 13.7N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 14.3N 115.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.0N 116.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 18.1N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 19.6N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 20.8N 123.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 21.5N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 22.8N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 23.7N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci