Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 052038
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this
afternoon, with the low-level center still located near the
northeastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to
near -80C.  A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40+ kt in the
southern semicircle, while the various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates remain in the 35-40 kt range.  Based
on the scatterometer data, the initial intensity is increased to  
45 kt.  The initial wind radii were adjusted based on the ASCAT 
data.

The latest global model runs continue to forecast that Emilia will
be the survivor in its interaction with the Tropical Storm Fabio to
the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this scenario and
the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear. The forecast
follows the trend of the intensity guidance and now forecasts a
peak intensity of 55 kt in 36 h.  After that time, although the
shear is forecast to decrease, Emilia is expected to slowly weaken
as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures.  The new
forecast is again an update of the previous forecast.  Confidence
in this forecast is increasing due to the more consistent model
guidance that Emilia will absorb Fabio and not the other way around.

The interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia southward for the
next 12 h or so.  After that, a turn toward the northwest or
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected as
Emilia starts to absorb Fabio.  After Fabio dissipates in about 48
h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, with this general
motion expected for the remainder of the forecast period.  The new
forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 13.6N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 13.3N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 14.3N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.5N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 19.8N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 20.6N 123.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 22.0N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven