Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 051458
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that Emilia remains a sheared cyclone this 
morning, with the low-level center located near the northeastern 
edge of a large convective mass with cloud tops to near -85C.  The 
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have 
nudged upward to the 35-40 kt range, and the initial intensity is 
set at 40 kt.

The latest global model runs continue to suggest that Emilia will be 
the survivor in interaction with the newly formed Tropical Storm 
Fabio to the east, and the intensity forecast is based on this 
scenario and the expectation of continued moderate easterly shear.  
The forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance and 
forecasts a peak intensity of 60 kt in 48 h.  After that time, 
Emilia is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over decreasing sea 
surface temperatures.  The new forecast is basically an update of 
the previous forecast.  It should be noted that this forecast is low 
confidence due to the possibility that Fabio might still end up as 
the dominant cyclone.

Interaction with Fabio should steer Emilia south-southwestward to 
southward for the next 12 h or so.  After that, a turn toward the 
northwest or north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is 
expected as Emilia start to absorb Fabio.  After Fabio dissipates in 
about 60 h, Emilia should generally move west-northwestward on the 
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  The first 96 
h of the forecast track have been adjusted somewhat based on the GFS 
and Canadian model forecasts of the interaction between Emilia and 
Fabio.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 14.5N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 13.9N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 14.4N 114.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 15.9N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 18.2N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 19.6N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 20.8N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven