Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 050859
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Emilia has held relatively steady overnight.  Recently, a large
burst of convection with cloud top temperatures of less than -80
degrees C has formed near the estimated center.  Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB both support maintaining the initial
intensity at 35 kt for this advisory cycle.

The intensity forecast continues to be quite uncertain.  This is
because of a system to the east of Emilia, Invest 96E.  Almost all
global and regional weather model guidance has trended toward making
Emilia the dominant system.  As a result, dissipation is no longer
expected in a couple of days.  Instead, Emilia is expected to take
advantage of the warm ocean waters and conducive environment and
strengthen through mid-week.  By the end of the week, Emilia should
move into a more stable environment with cooling sea surface
temperature and gradually weaken.  However, it is still possible
that Invest 96E forms, strengthens, and causes Emilia to dissipate
sooner.  The latest NHC intensity forecast peaks Emilia in 48 h at
60 kt and predicts the system to become a remnant low by 120 h.

The tropical storm is moving slowly to the south-southwest, at an
estimated 200/4 kt.  The near-term track forecast is being
influenced by Invest 96E.  Emilia is forecast to continue slowly
south-southwestward as the two systems rotate cyclonically around
each other.  In about a day or so, Emilia should begin to lift to
the north-northwest and accelerate as it is steered by a ridge
centered over the southwestern United States.  This motion should
gradually turn more northwestward by mid-week.  The latest track
forecast has shifted to the west due to the initial location and has
been extended into the future out to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 14.8N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 14.3N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 15.3N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 16.4N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 19.3N 120.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 21.6N 125.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 23.1N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci