Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Emilia seems to be in the final stages of fully absorbing the 
remnants of Fabio, which now appear fully enveloped in Emilia's 
larger circulation. With that said, the merger has not benefited 
Emilia, and most of its deep central convection has collapsed as the 
system approaches cooler waters. While there hasn't been recent 
microwave data over the system, subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates have either stayed the same or decreased 
slightly. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt for this 
advisory.

The interaction with Fabio may have resulted in a brief acceleration 
in Emilia's forward motion, but the longer term motion is now off to 
the west-northwest at 290/16-kt. The steering associated with a 
mid-level ridge to the north should continue to result in a 
west-northwestward motion for most of the forecast period. The NHC 
track forecast is very similar to the prior advisory, and still lies 
in the middle of the track guidance envelope.

As mentioned in the prior advisory, the shear is forecast to remain 
low over Emilia, but the tropical storm is also forecast to cross 
the 26 C isotherm tonight and move over increasingly cool ocean 
waters. In addition, the storm will also be traversing an 
increasingly dry and stable air mass along the forecast track. Thus, 
gradual weakening is forecast to continue, with Emilia expected to 
become a remnant low in about 48 hours, about the time when the GFS 
and ECMWF simulated satellite shows organized convection 
dissipating. It will likely take a few more days for the circulation 
to spin down to the point it opens up into a trough, sometime 
between days 4 to 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 20.5N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 21.5N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 22.3N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 23.1N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 23.7N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/1200Z 24.4N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0000Z 25.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0000Z 25.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin