Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

085 
WTPZ45 KNHC 071435
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave 
overpass indicate that Emilia has become better organized this 
morning.  The northeasterly shear impeding the system's northeast 
quadrant has decreased, allowing for improved outflow aloft.  A 
Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with cloud tops of -88C has formed over 
the surface center, and the microwave image revealed a banding eye 
feature wrapping from the south side of the cyclone.  The satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt and 55 kt, 
respectively, and a recent SATCON analysis indicated 57 kt.  Based 
on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Although the northeasterly deep-layer shear that has been inhibiting 
Emilia's growth has subsided, the cyclone is expected to move over 
decreasing oceanic surface temperatures later today while the 
thermodynamic environment becomes less conducive.  Therefore, 
weakening is expected to commence by Thursday morning.  By the 
48-hour period, Emilia should spin down and degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low, and this is in agreement with the 
deterministic models and the statistical hurricane intensity 
guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/15 kt.  
A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a slower forward speed is 
expected on Thursday while the cyclone moves around the southwest 
periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical high.  Toward the end of 
the period, vertically shallow Emilia is expected to turn toward the 
west within the low-level trade wind flow and eventually open up 
into a trough around day 5.  Only slight along-track adjustments 
were made to this forecast, closely following the various consensus 
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.6N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 19.2N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 21.3N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 21.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  10/0000Z 22.4N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z 22.9N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1200Z 23.7N 134.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts