Tropical Storm Emilia Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 070847
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052024
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Emilia has been holding steady tonight.  Deep convection continues 
to regularly pulse near the center, and a long curved band extends 
to the southwest.  Objective and subjective intensity estimates 
range between 48 and 65 kt.  The initial intensity is held at 55 kt 
for the advisory cycle to represent an average of the various 
estimates.

The storm is moving at an estimated 330/14 kt.  A gradual turn to 
the northwest and west-northwest with an increased forward speed is 
expected over the next day or so as Emilia moves along the southwest 
periphery of a mid-level ridge.  After Emilia absorbs Fabio, a 
slower forward motion to the west-northwest is forecast.  By the end 
of the forecast period, the weakened storm should turn westward in 
the low-level flow.  Only minor changes have been made to the latest 
track forecast, which lies between the various consensus aids.

Emilia is still embedded in an area of moderate deep-layer vertical 
wind shear.  While the shear is forecast to diminish over the next 
24 h, the tropical storm should be crossing the 26 degree Celsius 
isotherm later today.  By Thursday, Emilia is expected to absorb 
Tropical Storm Fabio, located to its north.  As Emilia moves over 
the cooling sea surface temperatures and into a dry and stable 
environment, the storm should steadily weaken and is now forecast to 
lose its organized, deep convection within 72 h.  The NHC prediction 
now shows Emilia becoming a remnant low by Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 17.1N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 18.9N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.6N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 21.4N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 22.1N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 22.7N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 23.3N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z 24.2N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  12/0600Z 24.5N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci