736 WTNT31 KNHC 040233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Earl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 03 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM EARL COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING IMPACTS IN PUERTO RICO, THE VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 64.2W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Earl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 64.2 West. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the northwest and then north is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, across the Leeward Islands, U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend. Limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. Rapid rises on rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain are also possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. WIND: Gusty winds, especially in squalls, are possible across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg