428 WTNT41 KNHC 061454 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062022 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 06 2022 The structure of Earl this morning is trying to regroup, though strong westerly vertical wind shear continues to affect the system. A new burst of deep convection has been attempting to form a little closer to the low-level center. Morning data from the NOAA-P3 Hurricane Reconnaissance mission show that the mid-level center has shifted back downshear of the center, though the vertical depth of the overall circulation is deeper than 24 hours ago. The peak flight winds from the mission were 62 kt at 700mb, with SFMR values in the 50-55 kt range. The initial intensity is maintained at 55 kt for this advisory, which is also in line with the subjective Dvorak estimates. Earl took a bit of a jog to the northwest this morning, but the larger mean motion is still generally northward at 360/4 kt. The gentle mid-level ridging that has been overhead of Earl is forecast to gradually break down and shift off to the southeast, as a positively-tilted deep-layer trough moves offshore of the eastern United States. Ultimately, this trough is expected to capture the tropical cyclone, helping Earl to recurve to the northeast in the 2-4 day forecast period. How sharp and fast this turn to the northeast though remains uncertain, with the GFS showing a slower turn in comparison to some of the other guidance. The updated NHC track forecast lies very close to the previous official forecast, closest to the HCCA consensus aid, and roughly in between the westward GFS and eastward ECMWF for the first 72 hours of the forecast period. Strong 25-30 kt of vertical wind shear is expected to keep Earl in check today, with little intensification forecast in the short term. However, shear begins to decrease markedly in about 36 h, with both the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS shear dropping under 10 kt in 60-72 hours. Thus, the latest forecast continues to indicate Earl becoming a major hurricane around that time-frame. After 96 h, Earl is forecast to begin undergoing extratropical transition, with the latest forecast indicating that process completing by day 5. Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in 60-72 hours. However, the size of the wind field of the tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of the storm closely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 23.7N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 24.4N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 25.5N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 26.8N 65.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 28.6N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 30.6N 63.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 33.0N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 39.3N 52.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 44.0N 44.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin