857 WTPA41 PHFO 160234 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Darby Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052022 500 PM HST Fri Jul 15 2022 The UW-CIMSS shear analysis near Darby shows that the westerly shear over the system has actually relaxed just a bit, now only around 20 kt. This may have been enough for a brief burst of deep convection in the northwest quadrant this afternoon. That convection has since dissipated, however, and the last persistent deep convection was about 1400Z. An earlier 1914Z ASCAT-B pass showed three wind barbs of 40-41 kt on the north side of the center. Various Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 45 kt at PHFO to 33 KT from the UW-CIMSS ADT. CIMSS SATCON from 0050Z had a CI of 37 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, have gone with an initial intensity of 40 kt. The initial motion is 275/14. A large anticyclone far north of Darby in both the mid- and low-levels will maintain a westerly track over the next few days. The current forecast track remains close to the past track, near the center of the guidance. The forecast track keeps Darby in a moderately sheared environment for the next couple of days, and over sea surface temperatures (SST) of 25-26C. The shear, SST and climatologically meager mid-level relative humidity values near the track all work against persistent deep convection redeveloping with Darby, although the simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF both show brief bursts from time to time. A strong high far to the north will maintain a pocket of relatively strong trade winds in the gradient flow as the system dissipates from remnant low to a surface trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.7N 149.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.6N 152.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.4N 156.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 17.3N 160.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster M Ballard/R Ballard