000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050835 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024 A 05/0422 UTC GPM/GMI microwave pass and GOES proxy-vis imagery indicate that Daniel's structure continues deteriorating due to the disrupting dominant monsoonal flow. Despite the advantageous microwave image, it has become increasingly difficult to pinpoint the cyclone's surface circulation center. Some fluctuations in Daniel's strength are possible today while the cyclone continues its trek over warm waters and remains within a modest wind shear environment. Afterward, the cyclone should move counter-clockwise around the eastern periphery of the larger Carlotta. During that time, SHIPS statistical intensity guidance and the global models show increasing dry air entrainment, prompting the cyclone to weaken through the remainder of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast agrees with the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus guidance and is similar to the previous advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, 060/10 kt, and this general motion within the low to mid-level southwesterly monsoonal flow should continue through today. After that time, global and regional models indicate that Daniel will move into the eastern periphery of Carlotta's cyclonic flow, resulting in a turn toward the north and northwest while spinning down to a remnant low on Tuesday and eventually opening up into a trough on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is an update to the previous one and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 17.1N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 18.3N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 19.0N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 128.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion
05
Aug