Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion

649 
WTPZ44 KNHC 040849
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Daniel is not a particularly well organized tropical cyclone, and 
the satellite presentation suggests the storm could be elongated 
from southwest to northeast. However, it continues to produce some 
deep convection near the estimated center position. Unfortunately, 
recent scatterometer data swaths missed Daniel overnight. The latest 
UW-CIMSS objective ADT and AiDT estimates as well as the subjective 
Dvorak classification from TAFB support keeping the initial 
intensity at 35 kt.

The initial position of Daniel is uncertain, but it appears the 
storm is presently drifting northward. A faster northeastward motion 
is expected later today through Monday due to increasing 
southwesterly low- to mid-level flow while Tropical Storm Carlotta 
passes to the north. Most of the global models show Daniel becoming 
caught in the outer circulation of Carlotta, and the updated NHC 
track forecast has been adjusted beyond 36 h to show Daniel slowing 
down and turning toward the north and northwest later in the period. 
These adjustments reflect the latest trends in the multi-model 
consensus aids.

In the short term, the moderate northeasterly shear that has 
plagued Daniel is forecast to diminish. The latest NHC intensity 
forecast shows a bit of strengthening during the next day or so, 
but this is primarily related to the northeastward acceleration of 
the storm as opposed to significant deepening of the low. As 
Daniel make a counter-clockwise turn around the outer circulation 
of Carlotta, it appears that significant dry air entrainment will 
make it difficult for the storm to sustain organized convection. 
The NHC forecast indicates Daniel will weaken to a post-tropical 
remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate around midweek.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 12.5N 130.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 13.3N 129.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 14.4N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 15.8N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 17.8N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 18.7N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart