Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion

409 
WTPZ44 KNHC 040240
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Deep convection associated with Daniel continues to pulse this 
evening.  The convection is not well organized in bands, but it has 
recently moved closer to the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak 
current intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt, 
but the initial intensity is once again held at 35 kt in deference 
to the earlier scatterometer data and the fact that there has been 
little overall change in organization. 

The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as before.  
Moderate northeasterly shear and dry mid-level air is likely to 
prevent significant strengthening overnight.  On Sunday, the shear 
is forecast to relax some which could allow the cyclone to 
strengthen slightly while it traverses warm sea surface 
temperatures. By 48 hours, Daniel is likely to weaken as it moves 
over cooler waters and reaches a more stable environment. The 
cyclone is likely to cease producing organized deep convection in 
about 60 hours, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around 
that time. 

Daniel has moved very little since the previous advisory, but a slow 
northward motion is expected to begin shortly.  The cyclone should 
start moving faster toward the northeast on Sunday as southwesterly 
low to mid-level flow around Hurricane Carlotta increases.  After 48 
h, the influence of Carlotta's outer circulation should cause the 
weaker Daniel to turn more northward or north-northwestward before 
it becomes a remnant low. The updated NHC track forecast is similar 
to the previous advisory through 36-48 hours, and it adjusted 
slightly westward thereafter to be closer to the latest consensus 
aids. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 12.3N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 13.1N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 14.2N 129.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 15.6N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 17.1N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 19.6N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown