Tropical Storm Daniel Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 032041
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042024
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Since this morning, Daniel continues to be a sheared tropical 
cyclone, with the deepest central convection remaining displaced to 
the west of the low-level center, which is now mostly exposed. This 
structure was also captured in a GMI microwave pass at 1712 UTC 
which showed the low-level center on the 37 GHz channel with the 
deeper convection displaced to the southwest. Subjective Dvorak Data 
T-numbers are both 2.0/30 kt from SAB and TAFB, but given the 
earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will remain 35 kt this 
advisory.

Daniel has been moving very slowly today and may have reformed a bit 
westward from last night, with the current motion estimated as a 
northward drift at 360/2 kt. As previously discussed, the primary 
steering mechanism the next several days is large-scale monsoonal 
southwesterly flow that the cyclone is expected to remain embedded 
in. This flow should begin to cause Daniel to move northeastward 
within the next 12 to 24 h. After 48 h, the influence of Carlotta's 
outer circulation should cause the weaker Daniel to turn more 
northward or north-northwestward before it becomes a remnant low or 
is absorbed by the stronger storm. There was not a whole lot of 
change in the track guidance for this cycle other than in the very 
short-term due to the more westward initial position, and the NHC 
track forecast is very close to the prior forecast, blending the 
HCCA and TCVE consensus aids.

There is also not much change in the intensity reasoning for Daniel. 
Moderate northeasterly shear and a dry mid-level air environment 
will probably prevent much robust strengthening despite the warm 29 
C sea-surface temperatures, and only a modest increase in winds are 
forecast over the next 24 to 36 h. Thereafter, Daniel's circulation 
is forecast to begin interacting with Carlotta to the north, and 
will likely start to gradually weaken. Both the GFS and ECMWF 
suggest the circulation will stop producing organized convection by 
72 h, just before the system opens up into a trough. The intensity 
forecast remains in good agreement with the HCCA and SHIPS guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 12.3N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 12.8N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 13.9N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 15.2N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 18.0N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 19.3N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin