Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Celia has changed little in organization since the last advisory, 
with the low-level center exposed just to the northeast of the main 
convective area by the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear.  
Various satellite intensity intensity estimates are in the 40-55 kt 
range, and since there are no significant changes in these since 
the last advisory the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The center has turned to the right during the last several hours, 
and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6.  This 
northwestward jog is expected to be relatively short-lived, and 
Celia is expected to resume a west-northwestward track during the 
next 12-24 h on the south side of a large mid- to upper-level 
ridge, with the general motion continuing for the remainder f the 
forecast period. The new forecast track is similar to the previous 
forecast, although it has a slightly more northward motion than the 
previous forecast during the first 24-36 h.  The new forecast track 
is also close to the various consensus models.

The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12-18 h, and with 
Celia remaining over warm water this should allow intensification 
to a hurricane in about 36 h. The cyclone should peak in intensity 
between 48-60 h, then weaken as it moves over decreasing sea 
surface temperatures after that time.  The new intensity forecast 
is unchanged from the previous forecast, and the forecast peak 
intensity of 75 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 14.2N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 14.9N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 15.7N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 16.2N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 16.8N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 17.4N 110.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 18.1N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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