000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230239 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Celia has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with the low-level center exposed just to the northeast of the main convective area by the effects of 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear. Various satellite intensity intensity estimates are in the 40-55 kt range, and since there are no significant changes in these since the last advisory the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center has turned to the right during the last several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. This northwestward jog is expected to be relatively short-lived, and Celia is expected to resume a west-northwestward track during the next 12-24 h on the south side of a large mid- to upper-level ridge, with the general motion continuing for the remainder f the forecast period. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, although it has a slightly more northward motion than the previous forecast during the first 24-36 h. The new forecast track is also close to the various consensus models. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12-18 h, and with Celia remaining over warm water this should allow intensification to a hurricane in about 36 h. The cyclone should peak in intensity between 48-60 h, then weaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures after that time. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and the forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 14.2N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.9N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.7N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.2N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.1N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven