Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


441 
WTPZ43 KNHC 221433
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's 
center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of 
deep convection.  However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective 
cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that 
the circulation has become a little more robust.  Celia's estimated 
intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses 
ranging between 35 and 45 kt.

Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States 
and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the 
west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt.  Even 
with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is 
larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast, 
mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is 
slower than the main pack of models.  Model spread is near or lower 
than normal on days 3 through 5.  The updated NHC track forecast is 
a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the 
model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right 
side of the guidance envelope.  All in all, Celia should maintain a 
general west-northwestward heading through Monday.

Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of 
deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then 
drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours.  With an already-established 
low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the 
lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane 
strength in a couple of days.  That opportunity will be relatively 
short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C 
waters in about 60 hours.  After that time, gradual weakening is 
anticipated.  The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous 
forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during 
the middle part of the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg




Source link