441 WTPZ43 KNHC 221433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 Strong east-northeasterly shear has not yet abated, and Celia's center remains offset just to the northeast of the main area of deep convection. However, low-cloud lines with embedded convective cells have become more evident in microwave imagery, suggesting that the circulation has become a little more robust. Celia's estimated intensity remains 40 kt, with subjective and objective analyses ranging between 35 and 45 kt. Stronger-than-normal ridging over the south-central United States and northern Mexico continues to steer Celia toward the west-northwest, with a slightly slower motion of 295/10 kt. Even with this stable steering configuration, the track model spread is larger than normal during the first couple of days of the forecast, mainly because the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the GFS is slower than the main pack of models. Model spread is near or lower than normal on days 3 through 5. The updated NHC track forecast is a bit to the right and slower than the previous forecast and the model consensus aids, hedging toward the GFS and ECMWF on the right side of the guidance envelope. All in all, Celia should maintain a general west-northwestward heading through Monday. Model diagnoses indicate that the current magnitude of deep-layer shear should continue for another 6 to 12 hours and then drop to 10 kt or less by 24 hours. With an already-established low-level circulation and SSTs of about 28 degrees Celsius, the lower shear should allow Celia to intensify and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days. That opportunity will be relatively short lived, however, since the cyclone is likely to reach sub-26C waters in about 60 hours. After that time, gradual weakening is anticipated. The NHC intensity is unchanged from the previous forecast and is slightly above the intensity consensus aids during the middle part of the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 13.7N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 14.3N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 107.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.6N 108.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.2N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 17.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.3N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg