Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271541
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
800 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

This morning's satellite presentation consists of a single curved 
band of deep convection in the south semi-circle of the cyclone.
Over the past several hours, this banding feature has decreased in 
areal extent, and the cloud tops have warmed.  A 0945 UTC AMSR2
microwave image revealed a vertically tilted structure with the
surface circulation displaced to the southeast of the mid-level
feature.  The Dvorak satellite intensity estimate T numbers and a 
recent SATCON member consensus have decreased.  Therefore,
the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.

Celia should continue to spin down slowly during the next few days
while traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Inhibiting 
thermodynamic environmental conditions are also expected to 
contribute to its eventual dissipation toward the end of the
week.  The NHC forecast is similar to last night's advisory and
closely resembles a blend of the IVCN and HCCA model intensity
predictions.

Celia's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/9 kt, and the system is embedded in the mid-level steering flow 
generated by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone.  
Little change in motion and forward speed is expected until 
dissipation.  The official track forecast is not much different 
from the previous one and lies in the middle of the model guidance 
suite.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 20.8N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 21.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 22.2N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 22.9N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1200Z 23.6N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/0000Z 24.1N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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