868 WTPZ43 KNHC 260839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 300 AM MDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Geostationary satellite imagery shows increased convection on the western and southern sides of Celia's circulation. However, as the system passed just south of the island of Socorro yesterday, a weather station did not even measure any sustained tropical-force-winds. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 40 and 55 kt. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to reflect a compromise between all of the estimates and observations. Celia will move into increasingly unfavorable environmental conditions, with sea surface temperatures below 25 C and a dry and stable airmass. Therefore, continued weakening is expected. The official forecast predicts the system will be post-tropical by 36 h and a remnant low in two days. This intensity forecast is lower than most of the model guidance. Celia is moving west-northwest at about 9 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge. As the system loses convection and becomes a shallow remnant low, it is expected to turn westward within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast lies on the southern half of the guidance envelope partially due to the intensity forecast, assuming a quicker westward turn for a weaker cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.3N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.7N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 20.2N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 21.0N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 28/0600Z 21.7N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z 22.4N 122.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z 23.1N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake