000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172035 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Overall the satellite presentation of Celia is a bit less impressive this afternoon, with the deepest convective cloud tops starting to become increasingly displaced from the low-level circulation center, which is now partially exposed to the east of the convection. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates for 1800 UTC were unchanged from SAB (T2.5/35 kt) and TAFB (T4.0/45 kt) from this morning, though objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) and SATCON have decreased some this afternoon. Unfortunately this afternoon's scatterometer swaths missed Celia's small wind field. The initial intensity will remain 35 kt for this advisory. The northward drift with Celia continues, with the latest motion estimated at 360/3 kt. As mentioned over the past day, Celia remains under light and variable steering flow on the south side of a broader monsoonal circulation parked over Central America. This broad low-level circulation should gradually break down as a pronounced mid-level ridge centered over the southern US amplifies and extends westward over Mexico. This changing synoptic pattern should result in Celia turning westward or even west-southwestward as it also gradually accelerates over the next 2-3 days. While there remains larger-than-average spread in the track guidance this afternoon, especially in the across-track direction, this general evolution is favored. The latest NHC track forecast is just a touch further south and faster compared to the previous advisory, and now lies pretty near the HCCA consensus aid. Celia's intensity may have already peaked earlier this morning, as easterly vertical wind shear now appears to be displacing the convection further west which is decreasing in overall intensity as cloud tops warm. SHIPS guidance suggests the current shear will only increase further over the next 24 hours, and Celia is no longer expected to intensify further in the short-term. Assuming the tropical cyclone survives the relatively hostile environment forecast over the next several days, shear is expected to decrease towards the end of the forecast period as it moves towards warmer ocean waters (28-29 C). Therefore, intensification could resume by early next week. The latest intensity forecast is a bit lower than this morning, but still remains above most of the guidance over the next 48 hours. Thereafter, some gradual intensification is shown, roughly splitting the difference between the HCCA and IVCN consensus. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. While Celia is expected to stay offshore, any motion to the north of the current forecast track, or increase in size could require a tropical storm watch or warning for part of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 11.8N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 12.1N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 12.3N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 12.2N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 11.8N 92.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 11.5N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 11.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin