000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 300 AM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022 The convective organization of Celia has not improved over the past several hours. While banding features are still present, cloud top temperatures near the center are warming. Given the mixed satellite signals, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt and this could be generous. Celia is now encountering more marginal sea surface temperatures (SSTs), slightly below 26 C. It appears the system has run out of time for further intensification. While the shear remains low, the atmosphere is gradually becoming more stable and dry. This should result in Celia weakening and later this weekend, losing convection in 2 or 3 days. The official intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, on the lower end of the guidance since Celia has been under-performing. The system is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a gradual increase in forward speed as the storm is steered by a building mid-level ridge. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and only minimal changes have been made from the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.9N 112.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 20.6N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 22.5N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake