000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022 Celia continues to become better organized, as a ragged central dense overcast has developed and widespread outer convective bands are forming in the southeastern semicircle. Unfortunately, no microwave overpasses are available to show what the structure is under the overcast. The various subjective and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the improved cloud pattern, so the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 45 kt. Celia is now in an environment of light to moderate shear, and these conditions are likely to persist through the forecast period. However, the cyclone is running out of warm water over which to strengthen. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the forecast track decrease to about 26C in about 12 h, are in the 25-26C range from 12-48 h, and then decrease below 25C after 60 h. Based on this and the intensity guidance, Celia should strengthen for 24-36 h, and the intensity forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane during this time. After 36 h, the cyclone is expected to slowly weaken as it moves over the cooler water, eventually decaying to a remnant low over 21C SSTs by 120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance and shows lower intensity than the previous forecast from 36-96 h. The initial motion is now 295/8. A mid-level ridge over the southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to build westward to the north of Celia over the next few days, and this should keep the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward with some variation in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, a more westward motion is forecast as the weakening cyclone is steered more by low-level easterly flow. The guidance has shifted a little north since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track lies slightly north of the old track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 16.7N 107.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.3N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 19.0N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven