Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 232034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia finally looks like a non-sheared tropical storm.  The 
low-level center is now embedded beneath a burst of convection that 
began earlier this morning, and convective banding is becoming more 
pronounced.  There's quite a large range of intensity estimates-- 
from 30 to 45 kt--but given the improved structure, the initial 
intensity remains 45 kt at the top of that range.  With its improved 
structure, Celia should be able to take advantage of low deep-layer 
shear and waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for strengthening 
over the next couple of days.  The NHC intensity forecast still 
shows Celia becoming a hurricane and most closely follows SHIPS, 
COAMPS-TC, and HCCA at the higher end of the guidance.  Gradual 
weakening is anticipated after 48 hours as the cyclone moves over 
cooler waters, and Celia is forecast to degenerate into a remnant 
low by day 5.

Celia has turned back to the west-northwest (300 degrees) at a 
slightly slower speed of 10 kt.  Mid-tropospheric ridging across 
the southern United States and northern Mexico is expected to 
expand westward over the next few days, keeping Celia on a 
west-northwestward course until lower-level winds turn the remnant 
low to the west by day 5.  The steering currents do weaken a bit, 
however, and Celia could be moving around 5 kt in about 36 hours.  
The track guidance has slowed down during the middle to latter part 
of the forecast, and the updated NHC forecast is therefore also a 
little slower than the morning forecast.  There is no change to 
Celia's predicted trajectory, however.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 16.4N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 16.8N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 17.1N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.4N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 18.6N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 19.3N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 21.1N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



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