Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 042034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Carlotta continues to steadily spin down over cool waters. While it 
is still producing a small area of moderate convection, mostly to 
the west of its center, Carlotta is otherwise free of deep 
convection at this time. The intensity estimate has been lowered 
further to 50 kt based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers 
from TAFB, however this could be generous since most objective 
estimates are a little lower.

Carlotta has moved south of previous forecasts, perhaps responding 
to shallow-layer steering sooner than previously expected due to its 
lack of recent convection. Therefore, the NHC track forecast has 
been adjusted southward, but is still near the multi-model 
consensus. Overall, Carlotta is still forecast to move generally 
westward for the next few days, slowing slightly and perhaps turning 
west-southwestward near mid-week as it becomes post-tropical. The 
tropical storm should lose its remaining deep convection during the 
next day or two while it continues to move over cool SSTs and 
through a stable surrounding environment. This will ultimately cause 
Carlotta to dissipate in about three days, if not sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.9N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.1N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z 20.2N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky