Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 041435
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Carlotta's deep convection has become quite limited this
morning. Subjective Dvorak and objective satellite estimates like
the UW-CIMSS ADT are all decreasing, and support an initial
intensity estimate of 55 kt. No changes of note were made to the NHC
forecast, and further weakening should continue as Carlotta moves
over SSTs that are already below 25 deg C. The SSTs will only get
colder during the next couple of days as Carlotta moves along the
forecast track. The tropical storm is forecast by most models to
lose its remaining deep convection in about 48 h, and based on
current trends this could occur even sooner. Dissipation is still
expected around mid-week.

The tropical storm is still moving westward to west-northwestward. 
This general motion should continue for the next day or two as 
Carlotta is steered by a deep-layer ridge centered well to its 
northeast. As the cyclone weakens further and becomes more 
vertically shallow, low-level steering will likely cause it to turn 
westward and slow down slightly in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 19.9N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky