Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 040842
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Carlotta has continued to weaken overnight. Central deep convection 
has collapsed, and the low-level center appears to be at least 
partially exposed in proxy-visible satellite images. As a result, 
the satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased. The initial 
intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which makes 
Carlotta a tropical storm.

The storm is expected to move over progressively cooler SSTs over 
the next few days while encountering stronger deep-layer shear in a 
drier, more stable environment. Therefore, steady weakening is 
forecast, and Carlotta is likely to lose organized convection and 
become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. After that, the 
shallow cyclone should spin down and dissipate around midweek.

Carlotta continues to move west-northwestward at around 10 kt while 
being steered by a deep-layer ridge centered to its north and east. 
This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or 
two. As the system weakens, the shallow vortex should move westward 
within the low-level steering currents. There are no significant 
changes to the latest NHC track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 19.9N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.2N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 20.7N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 21.5N 129.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 21.7N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart