Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

251 
WTPZ43 KNHC 050834
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

A diminishing area of fragmented moderate convection is all that
remains of Carlotta's cloud pattern this morning.  The advisory's
initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt and is just above the
consensus of the various UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance.  
Carlotta should continue to spin down through the period gradually 
and could become a post-tropical cyclone later today if these
convective trends continue.  If not, the cyclone is forecast to
become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the
week, which is shown explicitly in the NHC intensity forecast.

Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be a little to the right 
of due west or 280/8 kt, and is forecast to continue moving in 
this general direction today.  Through the remainder of the period, 
Carlotta should slow some in forward speed while turning toward the 
west-southwest on Tuesday and degenerating into a post-tropical 
remnant low.  Dissipation is forecast to occur during the next 
couple of days while the remnant low traverses cooler sea surface 
temperatures and moves through a dry/stable marine-layer air mass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 20.2N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 20.3N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 20.4N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 20.2N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z 19.8N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts