Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

053 
WTPZ43 KNHC 050233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Conventional satellite imagery shows only a few fragments of deep 
convection remaining this evening, just to the northeast of the 
surface circulation center.  Consequently, the cyclone is too weak 
to classify based on the Dvorak satellite intensity technique.  The 
initial intensity is based on a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective 
current intensity guidance, which yields 45 kt.  

Carlotta's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 
285/8 kt, and should continue moving in this trajectory with 
some increase in forward speed during the next day or so.  
Afterward, the cyclone is expected to slow down a bit while turning
west-southwestward on Tuesday as it weakens further and becomes a 
post-tropical remnant low.  Dissipation is forecast to occur in 60 
hours, or possibly sooner, while the remnant low moves over cooler 
water and through a dry/stable air mass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 20.1N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.3N 126.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 20.5N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 20.2N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts