Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion

966 
WTPZ42 KNHC 261433
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03 
UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18 
satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection 
soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone 
later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at 
35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous.

Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do
not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some
intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the
next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive
for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward.
The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical
remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current
trends continue.

The initial motion is now 270/9 kt.  Bud is being steered along the 
south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system 
should move generally westward today.  As we move into the weekend, 
Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level 
trade wind flow.  The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the 
previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly