966 WTPZ42 KNHC 261433 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03 UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18 satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous. Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward. The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward today. As we move into the weekend, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion
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26
Jul