000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260836 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud is currently only generating isolated patches of deep convection to the south and southwest of the center. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease and are now in the 30-40 kt range. Using these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is now 285/9 kt. Bud is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally westward today. After that, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance again has nudged to the north of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is thus also nudged northward. While it is possible there could be one more convective flare-up this morning, all of the guidance indicates that Bud should continue to weaken due to moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken to a depression later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipated between 60-72 h based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion
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26
Jul