000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260235 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Deep convection associated with Bud has collapsed this evening. The infrared cloud tops have warmed over the center, which is now partially exposed due to the thinning central overcast. As a result, the latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, in best agreement with a T-3.0/45 kt Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB. Bud is moving westward at 11 kt, to the south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. This general motion should continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest at a slightly slower forward speed this weekend as the shallow cyclone becomes steered by the low-level flow. Once again, the NHC forecast has been nudged slightly north of the previous prediction based on the latest track aids. Despite weak vertical wind shear, Bud is expected to weaken over the next couple of days while moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into a drier and more stable environment. All of the dynamical and statistical models show weakening during the next couple of days, and the latest NHC forecast closely follows the latest multi-model consensus aids. The post-tropical transition and dissipation of Bud could occur even sooner than forecast if the system is unable to sustain more organized deep convection going forward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.6N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.8N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.8N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.7N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 18.1N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Source link