358 WTNT33 KNHC 230240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 ...CENTER OF BRET NEAR ST. VINCENT... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 61.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning in in effect for... * Dominica * St. Lucia * Martinique * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the southeastern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Bret. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 61.1 West. Bret is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Bret is expected to move through and away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours, and then move westward across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next couple of days, and the system is likely to dissipate over the central Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). Tropical-storm conditions are also being reported from Martinique. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and earlier surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Bret can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas through tonight. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south through St. Vincent and the Grenadines, including Barbados. The heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially across areas of higher terrain. Urban flooding is also possible. SURF: Swells generated by Bret are expected to affect portions of the Lesser Antilles through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven