Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Bonnie appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images 
show a strong convective band, with a significant amount of 
lightning, on the western side of the system. Recent microwave 
data indicate than an inner core is becoming better established, 
with hints of an eye apparent in the 37 GHz channel. The latest 
Dvorak classifications were both 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and 
the initial intensity is nudged up to 55 kt based on that data.

The storm is currently experiencing a moderate amount of easterly 
shear, but that is expected to let up some during the next day or 
so. The improving upper-level wind pattern combined with a moist 
air mass and warm SSTs should allow Bonnie to steadily strengthen 
through Monday. Rapid intensification is a possibility, and the 
SHIPS model shows a fair chance (40 percent) of that occurring 
within the next 24 hours. In a couple of days, however, easterly 
shear is expected to increase and SSTs gradually cool beneath the 
system. These factors should end the strengthening trend and 
perhaps induce slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast shows a 
faster rate of strengthening than the previous one in the short 
term, but is otherwise unchanged.   

Bonnie is still moving relatively quickly westward at 280/14 kt. A 
mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer Bonnie 
westward to west-northwestward during the next several days, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. The track models are in 
good agreement, and the new forecast lies close to the various 
consensus aids. Based on the forecast, no watches are required for 
Guatemala or southern/southwestern Mexico, but interests there 
should closely monitor updates, as a northward adjustment to the 
track could require tropical storm watches for portions of this 
coastline.

The main impact from Bonnie is expected to be rough surf and the 
potential for rip currents along the coast of Guatemala today and 
southern/southwestern Mexico Monday and Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 11.9N  92.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 12.5N  94.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 13.3N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 14.1N 100.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 14.9N 103.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 15.4N 105.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 15.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 16.2N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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