000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes and recent satellite imagery indicate that Bonnie has continued to become better organized throughout the day. The well-defined center of circulation and prominent banding south and west of the storm's center have persisted for the last several hours. SAB and TAFB both provided Dvorak estimates of 3.0/3.0, providing justification to increase the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Bonnie is still moving due west at 270/14 kt, and the track forecast is largely unchanged from the prior advisory. A deep-layer ridge located north of the storm will be the primary steering influence throughout the forecast period as Bonnie turns west-northwestward and is forecast to remain offshore and roughly parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. The official forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids. Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. Some continued strengthening is expected in the next day or two as Bonnie is forecast to move over an area of warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and relatively low vertical wind shear. For this reason, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about two days. The intensity forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, with some of the mesoscale hurricane models showing more rapid strengthening than the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will continue tonight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi