Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191434
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during
the past several hours.  The storm is maintaining an area of deep
convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak
classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based
on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is
already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even
cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass.
These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will
likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even
slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until
the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower
than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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