921 WTPZ42 KNHC 180248 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Blas has fallen apart tonight. The mid-level center of the cyclone has sheared off to the southwest, with no deep convection near the surface center, and a mostly-exposed low-level center was visible on the last few daylight satellite images. Dvorak classifications are basically dropping as fast as the rules allow, and given the lack of any significant thunderstorm activity, the initial wind speed is set on the low end of the estimates to 60 kt. Continued weakening is anticipated due to Blas moving over cool waters, although the loss of strength could be tempered by decreasing wind shear as well. The storm should produce a few more rounds of deep convection in the marginally unstable environment before eventually becoming a remnant low early next week. Model guidance is in good agreement on this solution, and the only modest change to the forecast was lowering it in the near-term due to the initial intensity. Additionally, the timing of Blas becoming a post-tropical cyclone was moved up by 12 h in this forecast cycle, and since most of the guidance indicate Blas should decay into a trough around 120 h, the NHC forecast does as well. Blas has slowed considerably during the past several hours, probably due to the vortex decoupling, with an initial motion estimate of 290/6 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days due to the system weakening and becoming increasingly steered by the lighter low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, shifted a bit to the north to come into better agreement with the model consensus aids. While Blas is moving farther away from the coast of Mexico, its associated swells are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula for another day or two. These conditions are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip currents in those areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.6N 110.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 18.0N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 18.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 18.4N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0000Z 18.5N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake