000 WTPZ42 KNHC 142059 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 400 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 The convective organization of Tropical Storm Blas continues to improve based on satellite imagery which shows a convective core forming with a well-defined mid-level circulation. The initial wind speed has been raised to 45 kt and is in agreement with Dvorak estimates. Future intensification of Blas is expected in the short-term forecast. The high SSTs and low vertical wind shear provide the baseline conditions for the storm to quickly intensify in the next 24 h, as indicated by statistical model guidance. Beyond this timeframe, environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable as an upper-level anticyclone builds over Mexico and increases the shear over Blas. The NHC intensity forecast is higher in the short-term than the last cycle and reflects the potential for quicker intensification. Blas continues to drift northward and the NHC track forecast has been shifted northward primarily due to initial storm motion and position. By tomorrow Blas is expected to turn west-northwestward and gradually accelerate due to a building ridge and continue that motion for the next several days. Model guidance has trended northward and faster, potentially due to a deeper tropical cyclone circulation feeling the upper-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast is shifted in that direction near or just south of the consensus guidance. Even though the system is forecast to remain off the coast of Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico starting later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake