2024-07-04 22:33:37
1720147633
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 After maintaining a relatively well-organized structure on satellite imagery for most of the day Thursday, Aletta appears a bit less impressive over the past few hours. The latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 30-36 kt, while the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-35 kt. At this time, there is no reason to change the initial intensity estimate of 35 kt, especially given that we should receive some ASCAT data within the next couple of hours. Although Aletta is currently located within an environment of low vertical wind shear, the cyclone is forecast to reach cooler waters and move into a drier airmass over the next 12 h or so. While it is possible that Aletta could maintain its intensity for another 6 to 12 h, weakening is expected to commence by Friday morning, if not sooner. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show Aletta losing its convection by late Friday, and the new NHC forecast calls for Aletta to become a remnant low in 24 h. Aletta has been moving a bit more quickly to the northwest or 305 degrees at 12 kt. A turn to the west is expected tonight. As Aletta loses its convection, it will be steered westward to west-southwestward by the low-level flow before it dissipates on Saturday. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a bit farther north and faster to the west, based mainly on the faster motion observed over the past 6 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.5N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.6N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.4N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z 18.0N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi