Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Agatha Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 310836
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

Agatha's deep convection is becoming oriented in lines to the east 
and south of the mid-level center of rotation, extending across the 
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Assuming a fast rate of wind 
decay over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico, Agatha's 
current intensity is estimated to be 40 kt.  The initial motion 
remains northeastward (045/7 kt), which will take Agatha farther 
inland over southeastern Mexico today.  A 12-hour remnant low point 
is provided in the forecast for continuity, but it's likely that the 
rugged terrain will cause Agatha to dissipate by this afternoon.  

Global model guidance continues to suggest that Agatha's remnants 
will become absorbed by a larger low-level cyclonic gyre over 
southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, with that new 
system having development potential over the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late this week.  Please see 
NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.  
Regardless of new development, Agatha's remnants and the larger gyre 
will continue to cause heavy rains and potentially life-threatening 
flash floods over portions of southeastern Mexico over the next day 
or two.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of 
southern Mexico through tonight.  This will pose a threat of 
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in squalls, will continue 
within the warning area through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0900Z 16.8N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/1800Z 17.2N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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