000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 400 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 Agatha's deep convection is becoming oriented in lines to the east and south of the mid-level center of rotation, extending across the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Assuming a fast rate of wind decay over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico, Agatha's current intensity is estimated to be 40 kt. The initial motion remains northeastward (045/7 kt), which will take Agatha farther inland over southeastern Mexico today. A 12-hour remnant low point is provided in the forecast for continuity, but it's likely that the rugged terrain will cause Agatha to dissipate by this afternoon. Global model guidance continues to suggest that Agatha's remnants will become absorbed by a larger low-level cyclonic gyre over southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days, with that new system having development potential over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late this week. Please see NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. Regardless of new development, Agatha's remnants and the larger gyre will continue to cause heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash floods over portions of southeastern Mexico over the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in squalls, will continue within the warning area through this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 16.8N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/1800Z 17.2N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg