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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 022039
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021

Victor was about out of time as a tropical cyclone, but a recent 
burst of deep convection about 60 n mi northeast of its center saved 
it from being declared a remnant low this afternoon. The cyclone 
continues to struggle with dry air and strong southwesterly shear. 
Scatterometer overpasses missed Victor today, so the initial 
advisory intensity of 30 kt is based on the latest CI-value from the 
TAFB Dvorak estimate. 

The depression is moving northwest, or 310/12 kt in the flow to the 
southwest of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is forecast to 
continue until Victor dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track 
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the 
various multimodel track consensus solutions. 

Victor refused to succumb to the strong shear and dry air over the 
past 24 h. However, these hostile conditions are not forecast to 
abate over the cyclone for the foreseeable future.  Therefore, the 
depression should struggle to maintain persistent deep convection, 
and the cyclone could degenerate to a remnant low at any time over 
the next couple of days. The global model guidance is in good 
agreement that Victor should gradually weaken early this week, and 
open into a tough of low pressure by Tuesday. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, except for 
the timing of the system becoming a remnant low. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.7N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 14.9N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 16.8N  41.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 18.9N  43.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 20.7N  45.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0600Z 22.5N  47.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



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