000 WTPA42 PHFO 281441 TCDCP2 Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 1 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Mon Jul 28 2025 Satellite data indicate that a new tropical depression has formed over the central Pacific basin a little less than 400 n mi east-northeast of Hurricane Iona. ASCAT data from several hours ago indicated that the system had a well-defined circulation with maximum winds of about 30 kt north of the center. More recently, microwave images show that the system is very compact, and its cloud pattern extends no more than 90 n mi across. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the latest satellite intensity estimates. It should be noted that the formation of this system was poorly predicted by most of the models. The small size of the depression, the complexity of the ITCZ breakdown, and close proximity to Iona all contributed to the forecasting difficulties. The depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, but this motion is somewhat uncertain since it has only recently formed. The system is expected to continue westward, following Iona, during the next few days as it remains on the south side of a narrow mid-level ridge. The cyclone might move a little south of due west late in the week when it is expected to weaken and move in the low-level flow. The official track forecast generally follows the various consensus aids. The environmental conditions could favor a little strengthening during the next day or so while the depression is over relatively warm water, embedded in a moist airmass, and in generally low shear conditions. However, as Iona gets stronger by the middle of the week, its outflow will likely impinge on the depression. This should end the opportunity for strengthening and cause weakening. In fact, the models show little to no strengthening and seem to have a poor grasp on the cyclone. Therefore, the official intensity forecast lies above all of the guidance in the short term given recent trends and the system’s current structure. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 12.0N 143.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 12.0N 144.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 12.0N 146.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 12.0N 148.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 12.0N 151.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 11.9N 154.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 11.7N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 11.0N 162.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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