256 WTPZ42 KNHC 020856 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM MST Tue Sep 02 2025 The tropical depression has been relatively steady overnight. Periodic bursts of deep convection continue to form over the low-level center, with cold cloud tops of less than -80 degrees C. A scatterometer pass from 0335 UTC showed a small circulation with reliable winds of 30 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt, which is also supported by the latest TAFB T2.0 classification. The cyclone is still moving west-northwestward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The ridge should soon begin to steer the depression generally northwestward for the next couple of days. By the end of the week, the tropical cyclone is expected to slow down as it reaches a weakness in the ridge and gradually turn northward. Over the weekend, the depression is forecast to turn north-northeastward to northeastward toward the Baja California peninsula. The latest official forecast track is west of the previous forecast as a result of an adjustment to the initial position reflecting a delay in the northwestward turn, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Warm waters and a quiescent, moist atmosphere should allow the depression to steadily intensify during the next couple of days. The system is still expected to peak just under hurricane strength. By day 3, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm and experience increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing mid-level humidities which should cause gradual weakening. Little changes have been made to the latest intensity forecast. Interests in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Baja California later today or Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.6N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.6N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 23.2N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 24.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 26.3N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 28.2N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
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