000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 There has not been much change in the organization of the depression over the past several hours. The system is producing a small area of very deep convection mainly over the southern portion of the circulation, but banding features are not very well-defined at this time. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength so the cyclone's intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. Center fixes from satellite images suggest only a very slow movement and the current motion estimate is about 350/2 kt. The system is in an environment of weak steering currents, as it remains under the influence of a low-level cyclonic gyre over Central America. This scenario should continue to prevail for the next day or so, so a slow motion is forecast through 36 hours. Thereafter, a mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast by the global models to build to the north of the tropical cyclone, which should induce a more westward motion in 2-5 days. The track guidance has shifted somewhat to the left compared to the previous advisory package, and the official forecast is shifted a little southwest of the previous NHC prediction. The simple and corrected consensus tracks are even farther to the left, so some additional adjustments may be needed in subsequent forecasts. The cyclone is in a generally conducive atmospheric environment with high humidity and fairly low shear. However the presence of a shallow oceanic mixed layer over the far eastern Pacific could cause the slow-moving system to be influenced by the upwelling of cooler waters. Therefore only modest strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, as in the previous NHC forecast. The dynamical guidance indicates an increase in easterly shear in a couple of days, which is expected to limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is near or a little above the simple and corrected consensus predictions, IVCN and HCCA respectively. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 11.3N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 11.8N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 12.4N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 12.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 12.7N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 12.4N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 13.0N 101.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch