Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Three-E Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 170234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

There has not been much change in the organization of the 
depression over the past several hours.  The system is 
producing a small area of very deep convection mainly over the 
southern portion of the circulation, but banding features are not 
very well-defined at this time.  Subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimates from TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm strength 
so the cyclone's intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

Center fixes from satellite images suggest only a very slow 
movement and the current motion estimate is about 350/2 kt.  The 
system is in an environment of weak steering currents, as it 
remains under the influence of a low-level cyclonic gyre over 
Central America.  This scenario should continue to prevail for the 
next day or so, so a slow motion is forecast through 36 hours.  
Thereafter, a mid-tropospheric ridge is forecast by the global 
models to build to the north of the tropical cyclone, which should 
induce a more westward motion in 2-5 days.  The track guidance has 
shifted somewhat to the left compared to the previous advisory 
package, and the official forecast is shifted a little southwest of 
the previous NHC prediction.  The simple and corrected consensus 
tracks are even farther to the left, so some additional adjustments 
may be needed in subsequent forecasts.

The cyclone is in a generally conducive atmospheric environment 
with high humidity and fairly low shear.  However the presence of 
a shallow oceanic mixed layer over the far eastern Pacific could 
cause the slow-moving system to be influenced by the upwelling of 
cooler waters. Therefore only modest strengthening is anticipated 
during the next day or so, as in the previous NHC forecast. The 
dynamical guidance indicates an increase in easterly shear in a 
couple of days, which is expected to limit strengthening.  The 
official intensity forecast is near or a little above the simple 
and corrected consensus predictions, IVCN and HCCA respectively.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 11.1N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 11.3N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 11.8N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 12.4N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 12.7N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 12.7N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 12.5N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 12.4N  96.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 13.0N 101.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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