Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion

967 
WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132024
200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Correct storm to cyclone in the second paragraph

The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to 
become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this 
morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection 
near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective 
Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite 
intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30 
kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical 
Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The initial motion of this tropical cyclone is westward at 270/6 
kt. The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward 
trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad 
mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in 
good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast 
track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity 
forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical 
storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm 
cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to 
dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity 
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to 
the IVCN consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hogsett