000 WTPZ43 KNHC 081436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 800 AM MST Mon Nov 08 2021 Terry has become less organized since yesterday and it appears that this is the from a combination of mid-level shear and the entrainment of some drier and more stable air from the north. Early light-visible satellite imagery reveals a couple of linear lines of deep convection, but the low cloud motion suggests that the circulation may be less defined. The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, and is based on earlier scatterometer data and a TAFB Dvorak classification of T2.0. Hopefully the ASCAT instrument will provide data over the system this afternoon to determine if a well-defined center still exists. Terry is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a well-established strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Terry is expected to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. The dynamical model guidance is in agreement on this scenario but the updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward to be closer to the various consensus aids. The mid-level shear that has been plaguing Terry is forecast to continue during the next day or two. This is likely to result in some additional weakening during that time. Although some of the guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable environment later in the period, the current structure of the system suggests that there will not be enough left of the cyclone to take advantage of that. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to follow the ECMWF and UKMET models which depict weakening and dissipation by day 4. It is possible that Terry will loose tropical cyclone status much sooner, either due to a lack of organized convection or loss of a well-defined center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 10.1N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 10.6N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 11.2N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 11.5N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 11.5N 118.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 11.3N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown