000 WTPZ43 KNHC 100236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 800 PM MST Tue Nov 09 2021 Terry is exhibiting a bursting convective pattern in geostationary satellite imagery. Recently, a new burst with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 deg C has emerged in the western semicircle. However, AMSR2 microwave data showed that the low-level circulation is still broad and somewhat elongated. Earlier scatterometer data indicated the system was a marginal tropical cyclone, with the strongest winds of around 20 kt located well northeast of the center and outside of the active convection. The convective organization has not improved, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt for this advisory. Hopefully, new scatterometer data later tonight helps assess Terry's intensity and status as a tropical cyclone. A low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern North Pacific is steering the depression westward, or 280/12 kt. Terry is forecast to move generally westward for the next several days with little change to the overall steering pattern expected. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with only minor adjustments that move Terry slightly faster in agreement with the latest track consensus aids. Despite moving over warm (27 deg C) SSTs within a low deep-layer shear environment, Terry has struggled to sustain organized convection. This is most likely due to intrusions of dry air that have periodically disrupted Terry's organization. Most of the global models show Terry remaining a depression and eventually opening up into a trough later this week. A notable exception is the GFS, which indicates some potential for restrengthening by Thursday as the cyclone moves over slightly warmer waters. The official NHC intensity forecast keeps Terry a depression through midweek, with the system degenerating into a remnant low early Friday and a trough shortly thereafter. This forecast lies on the lower end of the intensity guidance, and slightly below the IVCN consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 11.9N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 12.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 11.9N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 11.6N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 11.4N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 11.1N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart