Pacific Hurricane Feed

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion

WTPZ45 KNHC 150244

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
900 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022

While there are several convective bursts forming in a scattered 
fashion around the low-level circulation of the depression this 
evening, this activity lacks much organization. 0000 UTC Dvorak 
intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB were CI 1.5/2.5 respectively, and 
an average of these estimates still supports maintaining the 
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.

A prominent upper-level anticyclone to the north of Tropical 
Depression Ten-E is expected to further increase the easterly 
vertical wind shear over the system, with the ECMWF-SHIPS showing 
the magnitude approaching 30 kt in the next 24 hours. This shear 
should result in the depression ingesting dry and more stable air 
from outside of its core, further limiting convective activity. 
Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from 
the global models continues to suggest the system will no longer be 
able to produce organized convection by tomorrow night, marking its 
transition to a post-tropical remnant low. This remnant low will 
likely survive several more days before it dissipates.

The depression has been drifting to the west-southwest, with the 
latest motion estimated at 245/3 kt. Low-level steering is expected 
to maintain a slow west-southwestward heading over the next day or 
so with a gradual bend westward forecast thereafter. The latest NHC 
track was again shifted a bit south of the previous one given a 
southward shift in the track guidance envelope, but still lies near 
the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids during the forecast period.


INIT  15/0300Z 17.8N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 17.5N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0000Z 17.4N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1200Z 17.4N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Papin

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