000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142040 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 Deep convection has persisted over the southwestern portion of the depression's circulation today, however the center remains exposed due to moderate to strong shear. The area of convection has less coverage than it did earlier today and the subjective and objective T-numbers from SAB and UW/CIMSS have lowered accordingly. A blend of the various satellite intensity estimates still supports a 30 kt initial intensity, but this could be generous. The ASCAT satellite unfortunately missed the system so there is no scatterometer data is help determine the system's intensity. The system is not likely to strengthen as the shear that has been plaguing the depression is forecast to increase tonight. By Monday, gradual weakening is expected to begin as the system remains affected by moderate to strong shear and even drier mid-level air impinges on the cyclone. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the system will struggle to produce organized deep convection by tomorrow and the forecast calls for the depression to become a remnant low within 24 hours or so. The depression has been meandering since the previous advisory, but the longer-term motion appears to be just south of due west at about 4 kt. As the depression weakens, it will be steered by a low-level ridge to the north, and a slow westward to west-southwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous track due to the more southward initial position, but the official forecast remains near the latest TCVE consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.0N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.9N 114.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 17.6N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z 17.6N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown