000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141438 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 There has been little change in the structure of the tropical depression since the previous advisory. The center remains exposed to the northeast of the associated deep convection due to the presence of moderate to strong east-northeasterly shear. Since there has been no change in the system's organization, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Some of the objective and subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS suggest the system could be slightly stronger, but given the lack of overall organization it is best to stay on the conservative side until scatterometer data is potentially available later today. The vertical wind shear affecting the system is forecast to increase within the next 24 hours, and that is likely to prevent strengthening. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest bursts of deep convection are likely to continue over the western portion of the circulation through tonight. After that time, the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low and gradual weakening should occur through midweek. The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at about 4 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the depression is expected to cause the cyclone to turn westward later today. As the low weakens it is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.3N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.5N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.5N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown