Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 140844
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022

The depression is struggling against strong easterly shear, and the 
exposed low-level circulation center is now about 70 n mi from the  
edge of its associated deep convection.  The initial intensity is 
held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the latest 
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

The shear impacting the cyclone is forecast to increase even more 
over the next day or so.  The combination of this shear and dry 
mid-level air entraining into the depression's circulation is 
expected to disrupt the development of significant deep convection 
near its center.  GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest 
that perhaps a short-lived diurnal cycle of convection could develop 
near the center of the depression later this morning.  Thereafter, 
those models suggest the system will degenerate into a remnant low, 
and the NHC forecast indicates that the depression should become a 
remnant low as soon as tonight.  With an anticipated lack of 
appreciable deep convection near the cyclone's center, no 
strengthening is forecast. The system is expected to slowly weaken 
early this week and dissipate by midweek.  

The depression's low-level circulation has slowed its forward 
motion and is now moving at 295/5 kt to the southwest of a low- to 
mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue through today. 
As the cyclone loses its convection, a turn westward then 
west-southwestward is expected as the system becomes steered by the 
surrounding low-level flow.  The latest NHC track forecast remains 
very similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model 
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 18.4N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 18.5N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 18.5N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z 18.4N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z 18.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1800Z 18.0N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



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