000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140844 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 AM MDT Sun Aug 14 2022 The depression is struggling against strong easterly shear, and the exposed low-level circulation center is now about 70 n mi from the edge of its associated deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The shear impacting the cyclone is forecast to increase even more over the next day or so. The combination of this shear and dry mid-level air entraining into the depression's circulation is expected to disrupt the development of significant deep convection near its center. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest that perhaps a short-lived diurnal cycle of convection could develop near the center of the depression later this morning. Thereafter, those models suggest the system will degenerate into a remnant low, and the NHC forecast indicates that the depression should become a remnant low as soon as tonight. With an anticipated lack of appreciable deep convection near the cyclone's center, no strengthening is forecast. The system is expected to slowly weaken early this week and dissipate by midweek. The depression's low-level circulation has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at 295/5 kt to the southwest of a low- to mid-level ridge. This motion is expected to continue through today. As the cyclone loses its convection, a turn westward then west-southwestward is expected as the system becomes steered by the surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast remains very similar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 18.4N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 18.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 18.2N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 18.0N 115.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto