299 WTPZ41 KNHC 151438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past several days has become better defined this morning. The associated convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this general heading and speed during the next couple of days while moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings are necessary at this time. The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening, and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart