Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion

WTPZ41 KNHC 151438

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022

Conventional satellite data and passive microwave imagery indicate 
that the low pressure system NHC has been monitoring for the past 
several days has become better defined this morning. The associated 
convection has been persistent and is presently organized into a 
couple of fragmented curved bands that wrap around the northern and 
western portions of its circulation. The system now meets the 
criteria of a tropical cyclone, and its initial intensity is set at 
30 kt based on T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. The track 
guidance is in good agreement that the system will maintain this 
general heading and speed during the next couple of days while 
moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico, as it 
is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United 
States. The ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone 
early next week, which should keep it on a west-northwestward 
heading with a slight increase in forward speed on days 3-5. The 
official NHC track forecast lies near the center of the guidance 
envelope and closely follows the TVCE consensus aid. The current 
track and wind radii forecasts keep tropical-storm-force winds well 
offshore of southwestern Mexico, so no coastal watches or warnings 
are necessary at this time.

The environmental conditions along the forecast track appear very 
conducive for strengthening during the next several days. The system 
will move within a moist mid-level environment over 29-29.5 deg C 
SSTs this weekend, with only weak to moderate (10-15 kt) deep-layer 
northeasterly shear. The models unanimously support strengthening, 
and the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS guidance both indicate the potential 
for significant intensification in the coming days (around 50 
percent chance of a 65-kt increase in 72 h). The official NHC track 
forecast is fairly aggressive and lies on the higher side of the 
guidance, generally between the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS and the IVCN 
consensus aid. The forecast calls for the cyclone to become a 
hurricane on Sunday and continue strengthening through early next 
week. By the end of the forecast period, cooler SSTs and increasing 
deep-layer shear should induce a weakening trend. 


INIT  15/1500Z 12.0N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 12.7N 101.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 14.4N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 15.2N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 15.9N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 16.7N 110.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Reinhart

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